Prognostic indicators following emergency aortic aneurysm repair.

Abstract

We performed a retrospective study of 135 patients presenting for emergency abdominal aneurysm repair to determine predictive factors for outcome. The outcome measures investigated were mortality in the operating theatre and intensive care, and at 28 and 100 days. Univariate analysis showed that the patient's age, hypotension on admission, aneurysmal rupture, pre-operative cardiopulmonary resuscitation, intra-operative blood loss and hypotension were risk factors for death either in the operating theatre or up to 100 days after surgery. Binary logistic regression identified the independent risk factors for survival. Operative survival was determined by acute factors such as pre-operative cardiopulmonary resuscitation, aneurysmal rupture and intra-operative hypotension. Longer term survival was determined by the patient's age, aneurysmal rupture, blood loss and blood pressure at admission. Using a binary logistic regression equation, from which a simplified risk score was derived, it is possible to predict the likelihood of survival of individual patients presenting for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.