Stroke treatment economic model (STEM): predicting long-term costs from functional status.

Abstract

Stroke is a debilitating disease with long-term social and economic consequences. As new therapies for acute ischemic stroke are forthcoming, there is an increasing need to understand their long-term economic implications. To address this need, a stroke economic model was created. The model consists of 3 modules. A short-term module incorporates short-term clinical trial data. A long-term module composed of several Markov submodels predicts patient transitions among various locations over time. The modules are connected via a bridge component that groups the survivors at the end of the short-term module according to their functional status and location. Examples of analyses that can be conducted with this model are provided with the use of data from 2 international trials. For illustration, UK unit costs were estimated. With the trial data in the short-term module, the short-term management cost is estimated to be pound8326 (US $13,649 [USD]). Hospital stay was the major cost driver. By the end of the trials, there was a pronounced difference in the distribution of patient locations between functional groups. It is predicted in the long-term module that the subsequent cost amounts to pound75 985 (124,564 USD) for a major and pound27,995 (45,893 USD) for a minor stroke. Linking functional recovery at the end of short-term treatment with patients' treatment and residential locations allows this model to estimate the long-term economic impact of stroke interventions. Using patient location instead of the more common natural history as the model foundation allows quantification of the long-term impact to become data driven and hence increases confidence in the results.