Survival prediction in staged heart transplantation using Jarvik-7 artificial heart.

Abstract

Because mechanical circulatory assist as a bridge to heart transplantation places a further strain on current donor shortage as well as on medical cost containment, safe and effective use of the device is essential. To predict survival before undertaking staged heart transplantation with the Jarvik-7 artificial heart, our 58 attempts were reviewed retrospectively. Scores of 1-4 were given for six preoperative factors based on results obtained by univariate and multivariate analyses between survivors and nonsurvivors of staged heart transplantation: transplant rejection (scored 4: S4) or postoperative heart failure (S3) as the indication, recipient height < 175 cm (S3), body surface area < 1.8 m2 (S3), hyperbilirubinemia > 24 microM/l (S2), weight < 60 kg (S2), and age > 40 years (S1). Of 14 survivors, 13 had a total score < 4 (sensitivity, 93%), with an average score of 1.6 in contrast to 5.5 for 44 nonsurvivors (p < 0.001). Among 26 patients scored < 4, 21 had heart transplantation, of whom 13 left the hospital. Of 32 patients scored > or = 4, only four could be discharged after transplantation (specificity, 70%). Multiple preoperative factors successfully predicted transplantability and survival in staged heart transplantation. The results underscore the importance of preoperative condition and patient selection to achieve successful and effective use of Jarvik-7 as a bridge to heart transplantation.