Predicting failed trial of labor after primary cesarean delivery.

Abstract

To apply published scoring systems retrospectively to patients who had undergone a trial of labor after cesarean delivery to estimate whether there was a score at which a trial of labor should be discouraged. Patients with 1 previous cesarean delivery who then delivered between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 1998, were studied. An investigator blinded to outcome assigned scores using 3 different scoring systems. Student t test, chi(2), analysis of variance, and receiver operating curve analysis were performed. P <.05 was significant. Seventy-six percent (117/153) of trial of labor patients had a vaginal birth after cesarean delivery. Successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery patients had significantly different mean scores using all 3 scoring systems, but none of the systems accurately predicted failed trial of labor resulting in cesarean delivery. Unfavorable scores were associated with high rates of major complications. An unfavorable score predicting a high rate of complications and more failed trials of labor may help in counseling patients considering trial of labor. A better system to predict the success or failure of trial of labor is needed. III