Estimating risk curves for first-degree relatives of patients with Alzheimer's disease: the REVEAL study.

Abstract

The REVEAL study is a randomized, controlled study of the psychological and behavioral impact of APOE disclosure in a risk assessment protocol provided to first degree relatives of patients with Alzheimer's disease. The protocol presents risk information as cumulative incidence curves. This article describes how these curves were estimated. Curves were calculated using Bayes' rule to compute the posterior survival curves incorporating APOE information. A combination of survival data from the MIRAGE study and gender- and age-specific APOE odds ratios were used to create risk curves for males and females within each of the 6 APOE genotypes. Utilizing comparative genotype relative risk information and survival data from family studies, estimates of gender-, age-, and genotype-specific risk can be generated for use in a risk assessment research study that features genotype disclosure.