Predictors of survival after radiofrequency thermal ablation of colorectal cancer metastases to the liver: a prospective study.

Abstract

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of survival at the time of radiofrequency thermal ablation (RFA) in patients with colorectal liver metastasis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty-five patients with colorectal liver metastases who were not candidates for resection underwent laparoscopic RFA. RESULTS: The median Kaplan-Meier survival for all patients was 28.9 months after RFA treatment. Patients with a carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) less than 200 ng/mL had improved survival compared with those with a CEA more than 200 (34 v 16 months; P = .01). Patients with the dominant lesion less than 3 cm in diameter had a median survival of 38 v 34 months for lesions 3 to 5 cm, and 21 months for lesions greater than 5 cm (P = .03). Survival approached significance for patients with one to three tumors versus more than three tumors (29 v 22 months; P = .09). The presence of extrahepatic disease did not affect survival. Only the largest liver tumor size more than 5 cm was found to be a significant predictor of mortality by Cox proportional hazards model, with a 2.5-fold increased risk of death versus the largest liver tumor size less than 3 cm (P = .05). CONCLUSION: This study determines which patients do best after RFA. Historical survival with chemotherapy alone is 11 to 14 months, suggesting RFA has a positive impact on overall survival. Limited amounts of extrahepatic disease do not appear to affect survival adversely. RFA is a useful adjunct to chemotherapy in those patients with liver-predominant disease.