The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes: realistic estimates for the year 2000.

Abstract

To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000. We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death. The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes. These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.