Mathematical modelling: a tool for hospital infection control.

Abstract

Health-care-associated infections caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens have become a menace in hospitals worldwide and infection control measures have lead to vastly different outcomes in different countries. During the past 6 years, a theoretical framework based on mathematical models has emerged that provides solid and testable hypotheses and opens the road to a quantitative assessment of the main obstructions that undermine current efforts to control the spread of health-care-associated infections in hospitals and communities. We aim to explain to a broader audience of professionals in health care, infection control, and health systems administration some of these models that can improve the understanding of the hidden dynamics of health-care-associated infections. We also appraise their usefulness and limitations as an innovative research and decision tool for control purposes.