Predictive factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in type 1 autoimmune hepatitis.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an uncommon but serious occurrence in autoimmune hepatitis. Our objective was to determine predictors for this neoplasm to improve screening strategies. Two hundred twenty-seven patients underwent hepatic ultrasonography and serum alpha fetoprotein determinations at 6-12-month intervals. Nine patients developed HCC (4%), and each had cirrhosis > or =73 months prior to the malignancy (mean, 110 +/- 7 months). By univariate Cox analysis, features at accession associated with a higher risk of HCC were: male gender (Hazard Ratio [HR] 7.0, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.87-26.1, P= 0.004), history of blood transfusion (HR 5.6, 95% CI 1.51-21.1, P= 0.01), thrombocytopenia (HR 7.3, 95% CI 1.89-28.3, P= 0.004), ascites (HR 23.8, 95% CI 4.65-121.8, P= 0.0001), esophageal varices (HR 7.9, 95% CI 1.96-31.8, P= 0.004), and any sign of portal hypertension (HR 19.1, 95% CI 3.91-93.3, P= 0.0003). Features after accession associated with a higher risk of malignancy were: treatment for > or =3 yr (HR 7.6, 95% CI 1.25-18.2, P= 0.02), worsening laboratory tests during corticosteroid therapy (HR 7.6, 95% CI 1.81-32.1, P= 0.006), and cirrhosis for > or =10 yr (HR 8.4, 95% CI 1.69-41.9, P= 0.009). Male gender, features of portal hypertension, history of blood transfusions, immunosuppressive treatment for > or =3 yr, treatment failure, and cirrhosis of > or =10 yr duration identify patients at risk for HCC. These risk factors should focus screening in autoimmune hepatitis.