Ovarian cancer screening: potential effect on mortality.

Abstract

Serum tumor markers and ultrasonography are being investigated as possible ovarian cancer screening tests. Data from the United States on ovarian cancer incidence and survival were used to estimate the potential benefit on ovarian cancer mortality from screening tests of various sensitivities. A test with 80% sensitivity could reduce ovarian cancer mortality by 50% if all screening-detected cases were to experience current stage I survival rates; the benefit would be greatest among women aged 45 or older. For each cancer detected there would be at least 50 false-positive screening tests unless test specificity is greater than 98%. If our most optimistic assumptions about screening could be met, then universal periodic screening of women aged 45 to 74 would result in about 5000 additional 5-year survivors of ovarian cancer annually. Uptake of existing screening tests is far less than universal; thus we would expect the impact of any ovarian cancer screening program to fall short of these projections.