Risk assessment in acute pancreatitis.

Abstract

Acute pancreatitis has a variable natural history and in a proportion of patients is associated with severe complications and a significant risk of death. The various tools available for risk assessment in acute pancreatitis are reviewed. Relevant medical literature from PubMed, Ovid, Embase, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library websites to May 2008 was reviewed. Over the past 30 years several scoring systems have been developed to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis in the first 48-72 h. Biochemical and immunological markers, imaging modalities and novel predictive models may help identify patients at high risk of complications or death. Recently, there has been a recognition of the importance of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and organ dysfunction.