Early-warning signals for critical transitions.

Scheffer, Marten; Bascompte, Jordi; Brock, William A; Brovkin, Victor; Carpenter, Stephen R; Dakos, Vasilis; Held, Hermann; van Nes, Egbert H et al. · Nature · 2009

review · Level V

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Abstract

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.

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