Additive utility of family history and waist circumference to body mass index in childhood for predicting metabolic syndrome in adulthood.

Abstract

To determine whether waist circumference (WC) and family history of disease increase the predictive utility of body mass index (BMI) for adult metabolic syndrome (MetS). A subsample of 161 men and women from the Fels Longitudinal Study with childhood and adulthood measures were analyzed. Using logistic regression, childhood BMI categories (50th, 75th, and 85th percentiles), WC categories (75th and 90th percentiles), and family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease were modeled separately and in combinations to predict adult MetS. Predicted probabilities and c-statistics were compared across models. The addition of family history to BMI improved the predicted probability of adult MetS from 29% to 52% (Deltac-statistic = 0.13). The combination of WC and BMI was more predictive than BMI alone but did not outperform the combination of family history and BMI. In 3 of the 4 models with a combination of family history, WC, and BMI, the predicted probability of adult MetS did not exceed that from the combination of family history and BMI. Family history of type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease is a useful addition to BMI in childhood to predict the future risk of adult MetS.