Impact of drainage networks on cholera outbreaks in Lusaka, Zambia.

Abstract

We investigated the association between precipitation patterns and cholera outbreaks and the preventative roles of drainage networks against outbreaks in Lusaka, Zambia. We collected data on 6542 registered cholera patients in the 2003-2004 outbreak season and on 6045 cholera patients in the 2005-2006 season. Correlations between monthly cholera incidences and amount of precipitation were examined. The distribution pattern of the disease was analyzed by a kriging spatial analysis method. We analyzed cholera case distribution and spatiotemporal cluster by using 2590 cholera cases traced with a global positioning system in the 2005-2006 season. The association between drainage networks and cholera cases was analyzed with regression analysis. Increased precipitation was associated with the occurrence of cholera outbreaks, and insufficient drainage networks were statistically associated with cholera incidences. Insufficient coverage of drainage networks elevated the risk of cholera outbreaks. Integrated development is required to upgrade high-risk areas with sufficient infrastructure for a long-term cholera prevention strategy.