Next-generation tools for evolutionary invasion analyses.

Abstract

Evolutionary invasion analysis is a powerful technique for modelling in evolutionary biology. The general approach is to derive an expression for the growth rate of a mutant allele encoding some novel phenotype, and then to use this expression to predict long-term evolutionary outcomes. Mathematically, such 'invasion fitness' expressions are most often derived using standard linear stability analyses from dynamical systems theory. Interestingly, there is a mathematically equivalent approach to such stability analyses that is often employed in mathematical epidemiology, and that is based on so-called 'next-generation' matrices. Although this next-generation matrix approach has sometimes also been used in evolutionary invasion analyses, it is not yet common in this area despite the fact that it can sometimes greatly simplify calculations. The aim of this article is to bring the approach to a wider evolutionary audience in two ways. First, we review the next-generation matrix approach and provide a novel, and easily intuited, interpretation of how this approach relates to more standard techniques. Second, we illustrate next-generation methods in evolutionary invasion analysis through a series of informative examples. Although focusing primarily on evolutionary invasion analysis, we provide several insights that apply to biological modelling in general.