Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters. CONCLUSIONS: This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.