Prediction at first year of incident new-onset diabetes after kidney transplantation by risk prediction models.

Abstract

Our aim was to analyze the performance of two scores developed for predicting diabetes in nontransplant populations for identifying kidney transplant recipients with a higher new-onset diabetes mellitus after transplantation (NODAT) risk beyond the first year after transplantation. We analyzed 191 kidney transplants, which had at least 1-year follow-up posttransplant. First-year posttransplant variables were collected to estimate the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) and Framingham Offspring Study-Diabetes Mellitus (FOS-DM) algorithm. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of FOS-DM and SADPM scores to predict NODAT were 0.756 and 0.807 (P < 0.001), respectively. FOS-DM and SADPM scores over 75 percentile (hazard ratio 5.074 and 8.179, respectively, P < 0.001) were associated with NODAT. Both scores can be used to identify kidney recipients at higher risk for NODAT beyond the first year. SADPM score detects some 25% of kidney transplant patients with an eightfold risk for NODAT.