End of the spectacular decrease in fall-related mortality rate: men are catching up.

Abstract

We determined time trends in numbers and rates of fall-related mortality in an aging population, for men and women. We performed secular trend analysis of fall-related deaths in the older Dutch population (persons aged 65 years or older) from 1969 to 2008, using the national Official-Cause-of-Death-Statistics. Between 1969 and 2008, the age-adjusted fall-related mortality rate decreased from 202.1 to 66.7 per 100,000 older persons (decrease of 67%). However, the annual percentage change (change per year) in mortality rates was not constant, and could be divided into 3 phases: (1) a rapid decrease until the mid-1980s (men -4.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -4.9, -3.2; women -6.5%; 95% CI, -7.1, -5.9), (2) flattening of the decrease until the mid-1990s (men -1.4%; 95% CI = -2.4, -0.4; women -2.0%; 95% CI = -3.4, -0.6), and (3) stable mortality rates for women (0.0%; 95% CI = -1.2, 1.3) and rising rates for men (1.9%; 95% CI = 0.6, 3.2) over the last decade. The spectacular decrease in fall-related mortality ended in the mid-1990s and is currently increasing in older men at similar rates to those seen in women. Because of the aging society, absolute numbers in fall-related deaths are increasing rapidly.