Efficacy of extrapolation from national burn data for estimating patient volume in a new burn unit.

Abstract

In 2009, the JMS Burn Centers network opened as the only organized inpatient burn unit in Mississippi. Initial predictions of total annual state burn admissions (431 patients) and total annual state burn center admissions (239 patients) were made by extrapolating from national burn and census data. Actual JMS admissions for 2 years totaled 1016 patients, exceeding predicted total state burn admission by 18% and total predicted state burn center admissions by 113%. Demographic and professional characteristics may have contributed to the substantial inaccuracy of the original estimates of burn patients in this state.