One- and two-year outcomes and predictors of mortality following emergency laparotomy: a consecutive series from a United Kingdom teaching hospital.

Abstract

Data on outcomes of patients who underwent emergency laparotomy (EML) are limited. This prospective observational study examined aspects of inpatient care and outcomes following EML with a view to identifying predictors of mortality. Data collected from consecutive inpatients who underwent EML in a UK teaching hospital over a 3-month period included perioperative physiology, treatment, morbidity, and mortality (30-day, in-hospital, 12-month, and 24-month). Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of mortality. Eighty-five patients (44 male) with a mean ± SD age of 61 ± 18 years were studied. Postoperatively, 51 % of patients were admitted to the intensive care (ICU) or the high-dependency unit (HDU). 30-day, in-hospital, 12-month, and 24-month mortality was 14, 16.5, 22.4, and 25.9 %, respectively. After adjusting for confounding variables, age ≥70 years (odds ratio [OR] = 9.2, P = 0.004) and a need for postoperative ICU/HDU (OR = 15.0, P = 0.014) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were age ≥70 years (OR = 18.2, P = 0.016), ASA ≥III (OR = 22.1, P = 0.034), preoperative sepsis (OR = 20.6, P = 0.045), and need for postoperative ICU/HDU (OR = 21.5, P = 0.038). Independent predictors of 12-month mortality were preoperative urea >7.5 mmol/L (OR = 3.5, P = 0.038) and need for postoperative ICU/HDU (OR = 3.7, P = 0.044). Age ≥70 years was the only independent predictor of 24-month mortality (OR = 4.5, P = 0.014). Almost all deaths recorded in the 24 months following surgery resulted from disseminated malignancy. Patients who underwent EML had favourable outcomes, with 2-year survival close to 75 %. Age ≥70 years and the need for postoperative ICU/HDU care were independent predictors of mortality.