The association between enterovirus 71 infections and meteorological parameters in Taiwan.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Enterovirus 71 (EV71) infections are a significant cause of neurological disorder and death in children worldwide. Seasonal variations in EV71 infections have been recognized, but the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon remain unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between meteorological parameters and EV71 infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed the number of EV71 infections and daily climate data collected in Taiwan between 1998 and 2008 and used Poisson regression analysis and case-crossover methodology to evaluate the association between weather variability and the incidence of EV71 infection. A total of 1,914 EV71-infected patients were reported between 1998 and 2008. The incidence of EV71 infections reflected significant summertime seasonality (for oscillation, p<0.001). The incidence of EV71 infections began to rise at temperatures above 13°C (r(2) = 0.76, p<0.001); at temperatures higher than approximately 26°C (r(2) = 0.94, p<0.05), the incidence began to decline, producing an inverted V-shaped relationship. The increase in the incidence with increasing relative humidity was positive and linear (r(2) = 0.68, p<0.05). EV71 infection was most highly correlated with temperature and relative humidity in the period that likely preceded the infection. CONCLUSION: Our study provides quantitative evidence that the rate of EV71 infection increased significantly with increasing mean temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan.