Can colonoscopy remain cost-effective for colorectal cancer screening? The impact of practice patterns and the Will Rogers phenomenon on costs.

Abstract

The adenoma detection rate (ADR) in screening colonoscopy is higher than original cost-effectiveness models estimated. Future colorectal cancer (CRC) risk is decreased once the ADR is 20%, but it is unclear how much additional protection is provided with higher ADRs. We modeled the impact of a high ADR on future CRC risk and surveillance colonoscopy burden. We created three hypothetical scenarios for 100,000 average-risk individuals undergoing screening colonoscopy at age 50: (i) 20% ADR with 30% future CRC risk reduction; (ii) 50% ADR with 30% future CRC risk reduction; and (iii) 50% ADR with 50% future CRC risk reduction. After colonoscopy, patients could have high-risk or low-risk adenomas, or no adenomas. When the ADR increases from 20% to 50% but no additional CRC cases are prevented, future CRC risk for each group is still reduced, because lower-risk patients migrate into apparently higher-risk groups (the Will Rogers phenomenon). Future risk is further reduced if a 50% ADR leads to greater protection from CRC. However, despite the reductions in group-specific and overall future CRC risk, 34,635 additional surveillance colonoscopies are performed before the cohort is 60 years old when the ADR is 50% compared with 20%. If current surveillance practices continue along with high ADRs, screening colonoscopy may not remain cost-effective.