A hospital discharge risk score for 1-year all-cause mortality or non-fatal cardiovascular events in patients with lower-extremity peripheral artery disease, with and without revascularisation.

Abstract

This study aims to determine a hospital discharge prognostic risk score for patients with lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) with and without revascularisation. A prognostic score on mortality or non-fatal cardiovascular events was determined using the database of a multicentre prospective study enrolling consecutive patients hospitalised for PAD (COhorte de Patients ARTeriopathes, COPART). We analysed the data of 640 patients in the derivation cohort and 517 in the validation cohort. The risk score (and corresponding points) included the following factors: age 75-84 years (+2), ≥ 85 years (+3); previous myocardial infarction (+1); creatinine clearance: ≤ 30 ml min(-1) 1.73 m⁻² (+1.5), 0.30-0.59 (+1), ankle-brachial index: <0.3 (+2), 0.3-0.49 (+1.5) and >1.3 (+2); C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥ 70 mg l⁻¹ (+2); and association of statins, anti-platelet agents and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (-1.5). The frequency of the composite outcome increased significantly with the predicted risk: low risk (≤ 0 point), 2%; medium (0.5-2 points), 12.8%; high (2.5-4 points), 23%; very high (≥ 4.5 points): 42.2%. The model had a good performance in terms of discrimination (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.76) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.65). We propose the validated COPART risk score for hospitalised severe PAD. This prognostic risk score is based on six variables easily identifiable in clinical practice. Our study highlights the favourable prognostic impact of the prescription at discharge of combined drug therapies.