Science communication. Comment on "Quantifying long-term scientific impact".

Wang, Jian; Mei, Yajun; Hicks, Diana · Science · 2014

editorial · Level V

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Abstract

Wang et al. (Reports, 4 October 2013, p. 127) claimed high prediction power for their model of citation dynamics. We replicate their analysis but find discouraging results: 14.75% papers are estimated with unreasonably large μ (>5) and λ (>10) and correspondingly enormous prediction errors. The prediction power is even worse than simply using short-term citations to approximate long-term citations.

Medical subject headings