Superolateral hoffa fat-pad edema and patellofemoral maltracking: predictive modeling.

Abstract

Superolateral Hoffa fat-pad edema is a frequent finding with patellar maltracking and may precede clinically significant chondrosis. The purpose of this study was to clarify which patellofemoral measurements are most highly associated and to develop a prediction rule to guide clinical decision making. Twenty-three patellofemoral measurements were performed on 71 knees retrospectively identified as having superolateral Hoffa fat-pad edema at MRI (Hoffa group) and on 45 normal knees (normal group). Univariate analysis was performed to examine the association between these measurements and Hoffa fat-pad edema. Classification and regression tree analysis with 10-fold cross validation was used to generate a prediction model. For 16 of the 23 patellofemoral measurements, there was a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) between the Hoffa and normal groups. Classification and regression tree analysis identified a prediction model in which a patient is placed into the Hoffa group if one of three conditions is met: lateral patellar displacement greater than -3.6 mm and Insall-Salvati ratio greater than 0.99; lateral patellar displacement of -3.6 mm or less and Insall-Salvati ratio greater than 1.23; or lateral patellar displacement of -3.6 mm or less, Insall-Salvati ratio of 1.23 or less, and lateral trochlear inclination of 16.5° or less. In fitting of the original sample, this model had 91.6% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for identifying the Hoffa group. When 10-fold cross validation was applied, the estimated generalizable sensitivity and specificity were 85.9% and 75.6%. Superolateral Hoffa fat-pad is strongly associated with a number of measures of patellar maltracking. A prediction model based on these measurements is accurate for differentiating knees with superolateral Hoffa fat-pad edema from normal knees.