Social network effects of nonlifesaving early-stage breast cancer detection on mammography rates.

Abstract

We estimated the effect of anecdotes of early-stage, screen-detected cancer for which screening was not lifesaving on the demand for mammography. We constructed an agent-based model of mammography decisions, in which 10 000 agents that represent women aged 40 to 100 years were linked together on a social network, which was parameterized with a survey of 716 women conducted through the RAND American Life Panel. Our model represents a population in equilibrium, with demographics reflecting the current US population based on the most recent available census data. The aggregate effect of women learning about 1 category of cancers-those that would be detected but would not be lethal in the absence of screening-was a 13.8 percentage point increase in annual screening rates. Anecdotes of detection of early-stage cancers relayed through social networks may substantially increase demand for a screening test even when the detection through screening was nonlifesaving.