A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 25833244.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1098/rsif.2015.0024 and PMC identifier 4424677.
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Abstract
Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
Medical subject headings
- Disease Outbreaks
- Endemic Diseases
- Measles
- Measles Vaccine