The significantly lower risk of cervical cancer at and after the recommended age to begin and end screening compared to breast and colorectal cancer.

Abstract

We compare risk of cervical, colorectal, and breast cancer (and two pre-cancers: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2-3 and colorectal adenomas) at and after the recommended ages to begin and end screening in the United States. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate risk at and after the ages to screen. At the age to begin screening, absolute risk of breast and colorectal cancer was 381 and 53 times higher, respectively, than cervical cancer (0.0122, 95% CI: 0.0089-0.0162 and 0.0017, 95% CI: 0.0012-0.0023 vs. 3.2e(-5), 95% CI: 2.3e(-5)-4.3e(-5)). Risk of colorectal adenomas and breast cancer was 45 and 2.4 times higher than CIN 2-3 (0.2319, 95% CI: 0.1287-0.3624 and 0.0122, 95% CI: 0.0089-0.0017 vs. 0.0051, 95% CI: 0.0029-0.0081). After the age to end screening, breast and colorectal cancer risk was 17 and 11 times higher, respectively, than cervical cancer. Risk of cervical cancer at and after the recommended ages for screening is significantly lower than that of breast and colorectal cancer. Differences may become more pronounced in the era of HPV vaccines. Comparison of risk between cancers provides a novel perspective to inform future guideline development.