A Practical Predictive Index for Intra-abdominal Septic Complications After Primary Anastomosis for Crohn's Disease: Change in C-Reactive Protein Level Before Surgery.

Abstract

Postoperative intra-abdominal septic complications are difficult to manage in Crohn's disease, which makes prevention especially important. The purpose of this study was to examine the risk factors for intra-abdominal septic complications after primary anastomosis for Crohn's disease and to seek a practical predictive index for intra-abdominal septic complications. This was a retrospective study. The study was conducted in a tertiary referral hospital. Based on a computerized database of 344 patients with Crohn's disease who underwent primary anastomosis between 2004 and 2013, the patients were placed into an intra-abdominal septic complications group and a group without intra-abdominal septic complications. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors, and the predictive accuracy of possible predictors was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Overall, 39 patients (11.34%) developed intra-abdominal septic complications. Preoperative C-reactive protein level >10 mg/L was found to be an independent risk factor (p < 0.01) for intra-abdominal septic complications. For prediction of intra-abdominal septic complications, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a C-reactive protein cutoff of 14.50 mg/L provided negative and positive predictive values of 96.84% and 34.07%. In addition, the change in C-reactive protein levels over the 2 weeks before surgery was greater in the intra-abdominal septic complications group than the group with no intra-abdominal septic complications (p < 0.01), and the directions of change were opposite, upward in the former and downward in the latter. Apart from being a risk factor for intra-abdominal septic complications (p < 0.01), receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the change in C-reactive protein levels before surgery had a negative predictive value for intra-abdominal septic complications of 98.66% and a positive predictive value of 76.09%. This was a retrospective study. Changes in C-reactive protein before surgical treatment of Crohn's disease could serve as a practical predictive index for postoperative intra-abdominal septic complications.