Analysis of the Japanese Diabetes Risk Score and fatty liver markers for incident diabetes in a Japanese cohort.

Abstract

We examined the effectiveness of the Japanese Diabetes Risk Score (JPDRISC) and fatty liver markers for predicting incident diabetes. We created the JPDRISC. The study periods I and II were January 2007 to May 2009 and June 2009 to December 2011, respectively. A total of 2084 people (1389 men, 695 women; mean age: 46 years) were included. People with diabetes in the Period I and those with ethanol intake >140 g/week were excluded. A total of 1515 people were included. Fatty liver using ultrasonography scores (FLUS) were assigned. The mean observation period was 26.3 months, and 24 people had developed diabetes between the Periods I and II. In logistic regression analysis, the JPDRISC (OR=1.197, 95% C.I.: 1.062-1.350, p=0.003) and FLUS (OR=2.591, 95% C.I.: 1.411-4.758, p=0.002) in the Period I were independent determinants of incident diabetes. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, sensitivity and specificity for incident diabetes were 0.885 and 0.536, respectively, in people with both FLUS≥1 and the total JPDRISC≥6 in the Period I. The sensitivity was better than the JPDRISC alone (sensitivity 0.696) and FLUS alone (sensitivity 0.750). JPDRISC and FLUS were independently associated with incident diabetes and their combination is useful.