Breast Cancer Chemoprevention: A Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Abstract

Several agents have been advocated for breast cancer primary prevention. However, few of them appear effective, the associated severe adverse effects limiting their uptake. We performed a comprehensive search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting on the ability of chemoprevention agents (CPAs) to reduce the incidence of primary breast carcinoma. Using network meta-analysis, we ranked CPAs based simultaneously on efficacy and acceptability (an inverse measure of toxicity). All statistical tests were two-sided. We found 48 eligible RCTs, enrolling 271 161 women randomly assigned to receive either placebo or one of 21 CPAs. Aromatase inhibitors (anastrozole and exemestane, considered a single CPA class because of the lack of between-study heterogeneity; relative risk [RR] = 0.468, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.346 to 0.634), arzoxifene (RR = 0.415, 95% CI = 0.253 to 0.682), lasofoxifene (RR = 0.208, 95% CI = 0.079 to 0.544), raloxifene (RR = 0.572, 95% CI = 0.372 to 0.881), tamoxifen (RR = 0.708, 95% CI = 0.595 to 0.842), and tibolone (RR = 0.317, 95% CI = 0.127 to 0.792) were statistically significantly associated with a therapeutic effect, which was restricted to estrogen receptor-positive tumors of postmenopausal women (except for tamoxifen, which is active also during premenopause). Network meta-analysis ranking showed that the new selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) arzoxifene, lasofoxifene, and raloxifene have the best benefit-risk ratio. Aromatase inhibitors and tamoxifen ranked second and third, respectively. These results provide physicians and health care regulatory agencies with RCT-based evidence on efficacy and acceptability of currently available breast cancer CPAs; at the same time, we pinpoint how much work still remains to be done before pharmacological primary prevention becomes a routine option to reduce the burden of this disease.