Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 27010654.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0152186 and PMC identifier 4807111.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models.
Medical subject headings
- Dengue
- Models, Theoretical