Understanding the Dynamics of Violent Political Revolutions in an Agent-Based Framework.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 27104855.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0154175 and PMC identifier 4841579.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
This paper develops an agent-based computational model of violent political revolutions in which a subjugated population of citizens and an armed revolutionary organisation attempt to overthrow a central authority and its loyal forces. The model replicates several patterns of rebellion consistent with major historical revolutions, and provides an explanation for the multiplicity of outcomes that can arise from an uprising. The relevance of the heterogeneity of scenarios predicted by the model can be understood by considering the recent experience of the Arab Spring involving several rebellions that arose in an apparently similar way, but resulted in completely different political outcomes: the successful revolution in Tunisia, the failed protests in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and civil war in Syria and Libya.
Medical subject headings
- Algorithms
- Civil Disorders
- Models, Theoretical
- Violence
- Warfare and Armed Conflicts