Equivalences in Biological and Economical Systems: Peloton Dynamics and the Rebound Effect.

Abstract

An interdisciplinary bridge is proposed between principles of collective behavior in biological systems, particularly bicycle pelotons, and the economic phenomenon called the rebound effect. Two main equivalencies are proposed between aspects of peloton dynamics and aspects of energy service efficiencies and the rebound effect. Firstly, a threshold whereby weaker cyclists, up to maximal capacities, sustain speeds of pacesetters by drafting; equivalent to a threshold whereby consumers will not exceed maximum allocated budgets for energy services, costs for which are externally determined. Secondly, a threshold of peloton dynamics whereby, below this threshold, weaker cyclists share costly non-drafting positions, whereas above this threshold cyclists cannot share these positions but can sustain pacesetter speeds. This is in turn equivalent to the threshold in the context of energy service efficiency, whereby consumers will increase spending to the limit indicated by the rebound magnitude but not to their maximum allocated budgets. These thresholds are a consequence of the model equations, and the latter threshold is explained by consumer apprehension that existing energy efficiencies could disappear or be negative, when consumers would be over budget. This partly explains long term rebound increase, whereby consumers increase consumption as confidence rises that cost savings due to energy service efficiency is stable.