Serum Anion Gap Predicts All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Study.

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality rates are poor in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Novel risk factors related to clinical outcomes should be identified. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data from a randomized controlled study was performed in 440 CKD patients aged > 18 years, with estimated glomerular filtration rate 15-60 mL/min/1.73m2. Clinical data were available, and the albumin-adjusted serum anion gap (A-SAG) could be calculated. The outcome analyzed was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Of 440 participants, the median (interquartile range, IQR) follow-up duration was 5.1 (3.0-5.5) years. During the follow-up duration, 29 participants died (all-cause mortality 6.6%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 0.616 (95% CI 0.520-0.712, P = 0.037). The best threshold of A-SAG for all-cause mortality was 9.48 mmol/L, with sensitivity 0.793 and specificity 0.431. After adjusting for confounders, A-SAG above 9.48 mmol/L was independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, with hazard ratio 2.968 (95% CI 1.143-7.708, P = 0.025). In our study, serum levels of beta-2 microglobulin and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were positively associated with A-SAG. CONCLUSIONS: A-SAG is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality in advanced CKD patients. The positive correlation between A-SAG and serum beta-2 microglobulin or BUN might be a potential reason. Future study is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT 00860431.