Characterizing and Discovering Spatiotemporal Social Contact Patterns for Healthcare.

Abstract

During an epidemic, the spatial, temporal and demographic patterns of disease transmission are determined by multiple factors. In addition to the physiological properties of the pathogens and hosts, the social contact of the host population, which characterizes the reciprocal exposures of individuals to infection according to their demographic structure and various social activities, are also pivotal to understanding and predicting the prevalence of infectious diseases. How social contact is measured will affect the extent to which we can forecast the dynamics of infections in the real world. Most current work focuses on modeling the spatial patterns of static social contact. In this work, we use a novel perspective to address the problem of how to characterize and measure dynamic social contact during an epidemic. We propose an epidemic-model-based tensor deconvolution framework in which the spatiotemporal patterns of social contact are represented by the factors of the tensors. These factors can be discovered using a tensor deconvolution procedure with the integration of epidemic models based on rich types of data, mainly heterogeneous outbreak surveillance data, socio-demographic census data and physiological data from medical reports. Using reproduction models that include SIR/SIS/SEIR/SEIS models as case studies, the efficacy and applications of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed, empirically validated and demonstrated through a set of rigorous experiments using both synthetic and real-world data.