Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.
other · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 27940911.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1073/pnas.1618558114 and PMC identifier 5224358.
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Abstract
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
Medical subject headings
- Aedes
- Climate Change
- Dengue
- Insect Vectors