Bias, belief, and consensus: Collective opinion formation on fluctuating networks.

Abstract

With the advent of online networks, societies have become substantially more interconnected with individual members able to easily both maintain and modify their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation bias, the tendency to confirm one's beliefs, and we explore how this bias affects collective opinion formation. We introduce a model of binary opinion dynamics on a complex, fluctuating network with stochastic rewiring and we analyze these dynamics in the mean-field limit of large networks and fast link rewiring. We show that confirmation bias induces a segregation of individuals with different opinions and stabilizes the consensus state. We further show that bias can have an unusual, nonmonotonic effect on the time to consensus and this suggests a novel avenue for large-scale opinion manipulation.