Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

Shakhova, Natalia; Semiletov, Igor; Gustafsson, Orjan; Sergienko, Valentin; Lobkovsky, Leopold; Dudarev, Oleg; Tumskoy, Vladimir; Grigoriev, Michael et al. · Nat Commun · 2017

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

The rates of subsea permafrost degradation and occurrence of gas-migration pathways are key factors controlling the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emissions, yet these factors still require assessment. It is thought that after inundation, permafrost-degradation rates would decrease over time and submerged thaw-lake taliks would freeze; therefore, no CH<sub>4</sub> release would occur for millennia. Here we present results of the first comprehensive scientific re-drilling to show that subsea permafrost in the near-shore zone of the ESAS has a downward movement of the ice-bonded permafrost table of ∼14 cm year<sup>-1</sup> over the past 31-32 years. Our data reveal polygonal thermokarst patterns on the seafloor and gas-migration associated with submerged taliks, ice scouring and pockmarks. Knowing the rate and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation is a prerequisite to meaningful predictions of near-future CH<sub>4</sub> release in the Arctic.