Response to Comment on "How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?".
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- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 28819648.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aao2277 and PMC identifier 5555253.
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Abstract
Goebel <i>et al</i>. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that "the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated." We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed <i>M</i> ≥ 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The "realistic parameter range" suggested by Goebel <i>et al</i>. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.