Fibrosis-4 Index Helps Identify HBV Carriers With the Lowest Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Abstract

Several viral and host risk factors have been used to predict risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV). However, little is known whether fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a liver fibrosis biomarker, helps identify non-cirrhotic patients with the lowest HCC risk. A total of 2075 treatment-naive Taiwanese patients with chronic HBV infection were followed for an average period of 16.02 years. None of them had liver cirrhosis at baseline. We explored whether a low FIB-4 index complements the favourable predictors to defines patients with the lowest HCC risk. The finding was validated in 532 non-cirrhotic patients receiving long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC) treatment with suppressed viral replication. A total of 137 treatment-naive and 10 NUC-treated patients developed HCC, respectively. We found that HCC risk started to increase when baseline FIB-4 index >1.29 in the treatment-naive cohort. Patients with FIB-4 >1.29, compared to those with FIB-4 <1.29, were associated with a higher risk of HCC with hazards ratio of 5.56 (95% confidence interval: 3.93-7.86). More importantly, among patients with low viral load (HBV DNA level <2,000 IU/ml), baseline FIB-4 index helped stratify different HCC risks such that none of 326 HBeAg-negative patients with FIB-4 index <1.29, ALT level <40 U/l, and HBsAg level <1,000 IU/ml developed HCC. In addition, the patients with the FIB-4 index <1.29 consistently had the lowest HCC risks in the validation cohort receiving long-term NUC treatment. In non-cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection, FIB-4 index <1.29 complements the existing clinical profile to define patients with the lowest HCC risk.