The complex relationship of exposure to new <i>Plasmodium</i> infections and incidence of clinical malaria in Papua New Guinea.

Hofmann, Natalie E; Karl, Stephan; Wampfler, Rahel; Kiniboro, Benson; Teliki, Albina; Iga, Jonah; Waltmann, Andreea; Betuela, Inoni et al. · Elife · 2017

prospective_cohort · Level II

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Abstract

The molecular force of blood-stage infection (<sub>mol</sub>FOB) is a quantitative surrogate metric for malaria transmission at population level and for exposure at individual level. Relationships between <sub>mol</sub>FOB, parasite prevalence and clinical incidence were assessed in a treatment-to-reinfection cohort, where <i>P.vivax</i> (<i>Pv</i>) hypnozoites were eliminated in half the children by primaquine (PQ). Discounting relapses, children acquired equal numbers of new <i>P. falciparum</i> (<i>Pf</i>) and <i>Pv</i> blood-stage infections/year (<i>Pf-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB = 0-18, <i>Pv-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB = 0-23) resulting in comparable spatial and temporal patterns in incidence and prevalence of infections. Including relapses, <i>Pv-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB increased >3 fold (relative to PQ-treated children) showing greater heterogeneity at individual (<i>Pv-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB = 0-36) and village levels. <i>Pf-</i> and <i>Pv-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB were strongly associated with clinical episode risk. Yearly <i>Pf</i> clinical incidence rate (IR = 0.28) was higher than for <i>Pv</i> (IR = 0.12) despite lower <i>Pf-</i><sub>mol</sub>FOB. These relationships between <sub>mol</sub>FOB, clinical incidence and parasite prevalence reveal a comparable decline in <i>Pf</i> and <i>Pv</i> transmission that is normally hidden by the high burden of <i>Pv</i> relapses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934.

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