The risk of individual autoantibodies, autoantibody combinations and levels for arthritis development in clinically suspect arthralgia.

Abstract

Autoantibody testing is helpful for predicting the risk of progression to clinical arthritis in subjects at risk. Previous longitudinal studies have mainly selected autoantibody-positive arthralgia patients, and consequently the predictive values of autoantibodies were evaluated relative to one another. This study assessed the risks for arthritis development of ACPA, RF and/or anti-carbamylated protein antibodies (anti-CarP) in arthralgia patients considered at risk for RA by rheumatologists, based on clinical characteristics (clinically suspect arthralgia, CSA). The baseline ACPA, RF and anti-CarP autoantibody status of 241 patients, consecutively included in the CSA cohort, was studied for risk of developing clinical arthritis during a median follow-up of 103 (interquartile range: 81-114) weeks. Univariable associations for arthritis development were observed for ACPA, RF and anti-CarP antibodies; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 8.5 (4.7-15.5), 5.1 (2.8-9.3) and 3.9 (1.9-7.7), respectively. In multivariable analysis, only ACPA was independently associated (HR = 5.1; 2.0-13.2). Relative to autoantibody-negative CSA patients, ACPA-negative/RF-positive patients had HRs of 2.6 (1.04-6.6), ACPA-positive/RF-negative patients 8.0 (2.4-27.4) and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients 10.5 (5.4-20.6). Positive predictive values for development of clinical arthritis within 2 years were: 38% for ACPA-negative/RF-positive, 50% for ACPA-positive/RF-negative and 67% for ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients. Higher ACPA levels were not significantly associated with increased progression to clinical arthritis, in contrast to higher RF levels. Autoantibody levels were stable during follow-up. ACPA conferred the highest risk for arthritis development and had an additive value to RF. However, >30% of ACPA-positive/RF-positive CSA patients did not develop arthritis during the 2-year follow-up. Thus, CSA and information on autoantibodies is insufficient for accurately identifying imminent autoantibody-positive RA.