Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios.
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Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 29358713.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-017-02755-y and PMC identifier 5778135.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM<sub>2.5</sub> from baseline period (2001-2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM<sub>2.5</sub>. We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4-4 and 28.5-38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031-2040 and 2091-2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM<sub>2.5</sub> for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.
Medical subject headings
- Air Pollutants
- Air Pollution
- Environmental Exposure
- Mortality, Premature
- Particulate Matter