Incidence and risk factors of postoperative neurologic decline after complex adult spinal deformity surgery: results of the Scoli-RISK-1 study.

Abstract

Significant variability in neurologic outcomes after surgical correction for adult spinal deformity (ASD) has been reported. Risk factors for decline in neurologic motor outcomes are poorly understood. The objective of the present investigation was to identify the risk factors for postoperative neurologic motor decline in patients undergoing complex ASD surgery. This is a prospective international multicenter cohort study. From September 2011 to October 2012, 272 patients undergoing complex ASD surgery were prospectively enrolled in a multicenter, international cohort study in 15 sites. Neurologic decline was defined as any postoperative deterioration in American Spinal Injury Association lower extremity motor score (LEMS) compared with preoperative status. To identify risk factors, 10 candidate variables were selected for univariable analysis from the dataset based on clinical relevance, and a multivariable logistic regression analysis was used with backward stepwise selection. Complete datasets on 265 patients were available for analysis and 61 (23%) patients showed a decline in LEMS at discharge. Univariable analysis showed that the key factors associated with postoperative neurologic deterioration included older age, lumbar-level osteotomy, three-column osteotomy, and larger blood loss. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age (odds ratio [OR]=1.5 per 10 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-2.1, p=.005), larger coronal deformity angular ratio [DAR] (OR=1.1 per 1 unit, 95% CI 1.0-1.2, p=.037), and lumbar osteotomy (OR=3.3, 95% CI 1.2-9.2, p=.022) were the three major predictors of neurologic decline. Twenty-three percent of patients undergoing complex ASD surgery experienced a postoperative neurologic decline. Age, coronal DAR, and lumbar osteotomy were identified as the key contributing factors.