Childhood BMI and Adult Type 2 Diabetes, Coronary Artery Diseases, Chronic Kidney Disease, and Cardiometabolic Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Abstract

To test the causal effect of childhood BMI on adult cardiometabolic diseases using a Mendelian randomization analysis. We used 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms as instrumental variables for childhood BMI to test the causal effect of childhood BMI on cardiometabolic diseases using summary-level data from consortia. We found that a 1-SD increase in childhood BMI (kg/m²) was associated with an 83% increase in risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.83 [95% CI 1.46, 2.30]; <i>P</i> = 2.5 × 10^-7) and a 28% increase in risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) (OR 1.28 [95% CI 1.17, 1.39]; <i>P</i> = 2.1 × 10^-8) at the Bonferroni-adjusted level of significance (<i>P</i> < 0.017) in adults. In addition, a 1-SD increase in childhood BMI was associated with a 0.587-SD increase in adulthood BMI (kg/m²), a 0.062-SD increase in hip circumference (cm), a 0.602-SD increase in waist circumference (cm), a 0.111 pmol/L increase in log fasting insulin, a 0.068 increase in log-transformed HOMA of ß-cell function (%), a 0.126 increase in log-transformed HOMA of insulin resistance (%), and a 0.109-SD increase in triglyceride (mg/dL) but a 0.138-SD decrease in HDL (mg/dL) in adults at the Bonferroni-adjusted level of significance (<i>P</i> < 0.0026). A genetic predisposition to higher childhood BMI was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and CAD in adult life. These results provide evidence supportive of a causal association between childhood BMI and these outcomes.