Implications of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for Public Health.

Abstract

The recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will reduce total federal revenues by about 4% between 2018 and 2027. The law makes multiple changes to the taxation of individuals and corporations. It also repeals the Affordable Care Act's (ACA's) individual mandate penalties, which will erase some of the gains in insurance coverage achieved since implementation of the ACA's coverage expansions. The resulting increases in rates of uninsurance will likely lead to increased uncompensated care and deflect hospitals and health departments from addressing other prevention and public health needs. In addition, the law is expected to lead to substantial increases in the federal debt and, consequently, to calls for reductions in spending on entitlement programs, particularly Medicare, and on discretionary programs, including public health. Many other provisions of the law could also have second-order effects on public health.