Predicting Influenza H3N2 Vaccine Efficacy From Evolution of the Dominant Epitope.

Bonomo, Melia E; Deem, Michael W · Clin Infect Dis · 2018

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

We predict vaccine efficacy with a measure of antigenic distance between influenza A(H3N2) and vaccine viruses based on amino acid substitutions in the dominant epitope. In 2016-2017, our model predicts 19% efficacy compared with 20% observed. This tool assists candidate vaccine selection by predicting human protection against circulating strains.

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