Development of a Risk Stratification Scoring System to Predict General Surgical Complications in Hand Surgery Patients.

Abstract

Avoidance of postoperative complications is important to both patients and surgeons. In an attempt to optimize postoperative outcomes, a risk stratification scoring system has been created to aid in optimizing risk factors for general surgical complications in hand surgery patients. Patients were identified who underwent hand procedures as part of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Independent risk factors associated with postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery were identified and used to develop a point-scoring system to estimate the relative risk for sustaining complications. For validation, the system was tested on a subset of patients from the database who had undergone hand surgery. A total of 49,272 patients were identified as having undergone hand surgery from 2005 to 2015. The incidence of postoperative complications within 30 days of hand surgery was 2.3%. Risk factors associated with postoperative complications were male sex, tobacco abuse, congestive heart failure, anemia (male hematocrit less than 42; female less than 38), elevated creatinine (greater than 1.3 mg/dL), hypoalbuminemia (less than 3.5 g/dL), and hyponatremia (less than 135 mEq/L). Point scores derived for each of these factors were: hypoalbuminemia, +5; congestive heart failure, +2; anemia, +2; elevated creatinine, +2; male sex, +1; tobacco abuse, +1; and hyponatremia, +1. In the validation cohort, patients categorized as low-risk (0-3) using the point-scoring system had a 2.4% rate of 30-day complications; patients categorized as medium risk (4-7) had a 10.4% complication rate (relative risk = 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 3.1-5.9 compared with low risk) and high risk (≥8), 28.9% (relative risk = 11.9; 95% confidence interval, 9.0-15.7). This point-scoring system predicts risk for general postoperative complications after hand surgery. These data may help surgeons identify areas of clinical concern with patients to reduce the risk for sustaining postoperative complications. Prognostic II.