Limitations of the 2015 ATA Guidelines for Prediction of Thyroid Cancer: A Review of 1947 Consecutive Aspirations.

Abstract

The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines have been proposed to aid in the management of thyroid nodules by determining whether fine needle aspiration is indicated. To determine whether the ATA guidelines contribute to the overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer. This was a retrospective cohort study of ultrasound-imaged thyroid nodules (n = 1947) consecutively aspirated at a tertiary care center from 1 October 2009 to 22 February 2016. Nodules were retrospectively reviewed, assigned a 2015 ATA morphology, and placed into one of five 2015 ATA categories of risk (ATA-1, <1% risk of malignancy; ATA-2, <3% risk; ATA-3, 5% to 10% risk, ATA-4: 10% to 20% risk; ATA-5, >70% to 90% risk) by a reader who was blinded to cytology. ATA category was compared with cytopathology. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each ATA category was calculated with respect to cancer. Numbers needed to aspirate and Pearson correlations were calculated. Interrater agreement for ATA category across five readers was assessed. The PPV for cancer increased by ATA category [category 1 to 5, respectively: 0% (0/14), 2% (4/249), 5% (36/733), 12% (104/850), 28% (28/101)]. The number needed to sample to detect one papillary cancer was 125 (ATA-2), 49 (ATA-3), 13 (ATA-4), and 5 (ATA-5). The overall interrater agreement for ATA score across all five readers was fair (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.460). The 2015 ATA guidelines stratify risk for thyroid cancer; however, the stratification system is overly optimistic regarding cancer detection rates for the higher-risk nodules, and there is only fair interrater agreement.